SEC’s appeal odds in the Ripple lawsuit are under scrutiny, with estimations varying from 3% to 14%. Recent events, including charges dropped against Ripple’s leadership, have cast doubt on the SEC’s prospects. This ongoing legal battle carries substantial implications for both the cryptocurrency industry and the regulatory framework. As the dispute unfolds, legal experts closely monitor the case, anticipating potential precedents in digital asset regulation.
In the ongoing legal battle between the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and XRP, lawyers are making predictions about the SEC’s prospects in their appeal. The SEC has already dropped charges against Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and executive chair Chris Larsen, and a recent ruling on the sale of XRP also favored Ripple.
SEC’s Appeal Against Ripple Faces Steep Odds, Legal Experts Say
Lawyer Bill Morgan, who closely monitors the lawsuit, suggests that the SEC has a slim chance of winning its appeal against Ripple. He argues that there is no clear error that can be appealed, except for a favorable aspect related to XRP sales not meeting certain criteria of the Howey test. Morgan estimates the SEC’s chances of success at approximately 3%.
Morgan’s assessment responds to data shared by prominent attorney Jeremy Hogan, who provided government statistics on appeal success rates in various lawsuit types. According to the data, the SEC has a 14.2% chance of winning its appeal against Ripple.
The SEC and Ripple have been engaged in a protracted legal battle lasting three years, culminating in a judge’s ruling that the sale of Ripple on cryptocurrency exchanges does not violate securities law. This ruling marked a significant victory for Ripple, which had faced business setbacks as major crypto exchanges delisted Ripple during the SEC lawsuit.
Furthermore, the SEC’s appeal against this judgment was unsuccessful when Judge Analisa Torres ruled on October 4 that the regulatory agency had failed to demonstrate substantial legal questions or differences of opinion.
On October 19, the SEC moved to dismiss all charges against Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen, providing another substantial victory for Ripple and its leadership. Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, characterized the SEC’s action as a “surrender,” while XRP itself referred to it as a “stunning capitulation.”
Morgan also noted that with the SEC dismissing the remaining case, there will be no trial next year, and he anticipates a “final judgment (probably) sometime next year.” The outcome of the appeal will be closely watched by both the crypto industry and legal experts as it may set significant precedents in the regulation of digital assets.